About 8,000 delegates are to pick today the All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential candidate in Lagos.
The five presidential aspirants are former Head of State Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (a three-time presidential candidate); former Vice President Atiku Abubakar (ex-presidential candidate and aspirant); Governor Rochas Okorocha (ex-presidential aspirant); Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso and pharmacist-turned newspaper publisher Dr. Sam Nda-Isaiah.
The presidential primary election is significant for six reasons.
They are:
•unique and historic merger of the party;
•shape of the party which has made the progressives to cohabit with the conservatives;
•increasing socio-economic problems and desperate desire for change in the country;
•urgent need for alternative to the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which has ruled since 1999; and
•whether or not the APC
coalition (a party of heavyweights and ex-this or ex-that) will sink its
differences to produce a candidate without breaking up.
Although the party threw its
presidential ticket open, indications emerged last night that the
delegates might support power shift to the North.
The development has significantly
left the race for the four Northern aspirants namely Buhari
(North-West), Atiku (North-East), Kwankwaso (North-West) and Nda-Isaiah
(North-Central).
The choice of the candidate is
likely to be determined by many factors, including the outcome of the
primaries at the state level, forces from the North, antecedents of the
aspirants; their political and personal pedigree; and the influence of
the 14 APC governors, who control party structures in their states.
Other indices which may shape the
results of the primaries, are the voting power of statutory and elected
delegates, including members of the Board of Trustees of APC; members of
the National and State Executive Committees of the party; and members
of the National Assembly and State Houses of Assembly.
Also, some of the national leaders of APC will play a crucial role in deciding the flag bearer.
These leaders include Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, Chief Ogbonnaya Onu, former Interim National Chairman Chief Bisi Akande, National Chairman Chief John Odigie-Oyegun, National Secretary Mai Mala Buni, Senator Bukola Saraki, ex-Governors Danjuma Goje, Abdullahi Adamu, Bukar Abba Ibrahim, George Akume and Sani Yerima.
Others are Speaker Aminu Tambuwal, Alh. Kawu Baraje, Mr. Audu Ogbeh, Senator Shuaibu Lawan, former Governors Segun Oni, Olagunsoye Oyinlola and Adamu Aliero, among others.
But a highly-placed source, who
spoke in confidence, said: “If you look at Article 12(1) of the
Constitution of APC, the governors, APC leaders who control state
structure, and members of the National and State Houses of Assembly will
wield electoral powers to determine our flag bearer.
“With 14 out of the 36 states under
the control of APC governors, any aspirant who secures the nod of these
governors can conveniently win the election at the convention.
“Whether we like it or not, the governors seem to hold the ace.”
A document obtained by our
correspondent last night listed members of the Electoral College as
follows: all members of BOT, National Chairman and all members of the
National Executive Committee(NEC); serving and Presidents and
Vice-Presidents who are members of the party; serving and past
governors; past and serving deputy governors who are members of the
party; serving and past members of the National Assembly, who are
members of the party; serving and past Speakers, Deputy Speakers and
other principal officers of State Houses of Assembly who are members of
the party; and the members of the State Working Committee including
those of the FCT.
Those eligible to vote also include
all party chairmen and secretaries of all the local government areas and
local council development authorities (LCDAs); all elected chairmen of
local government councils and LCDAs who are members of the party; and
three elected delegates at least one of which must be a woman from each
LGA and LCDA.
As at press time, the aspirants have
started intense horse-trading with their foot-soldiers relocating to
Lagos where the convention is holding.
Going by the composition of the
electoral college, the hot spots with huge votes are Kano(44 LGAs);
Lagos (20 LGAs); Oyo (33 LGAs); Osun(30 LGAs); Borno (27 LGAs); Imo (27
LGAs) Sokoto(23 LGAs); Rivers (23 LGAs); Ogun (20); Edo(18); Yobe (17)
Kwara(16); Zamfara(14 LGAs); and Nasarawa(13).
Another party source added: “Though
the 22 other states are important, they do not command huge volume of
votes like those ones where APC is controlling the Executive, the Local
Governments, the Legislature and other statutory delegates.
“For instance, there is no APC
government again in Adamawa State, unlike when ex-Governor Murtala Nyako
was in charge of the state. This may be to the disadvantage of ex-VP
Atiku Abubakar, whose home base support is weak.
“In Buhari’s home state of Katsina,
the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is not only in control of the state,
it recently swept the Local Government poll in all the 34 local
governments in the state. The APC boycotted the election. With this
scenario, Buhari is not in a position of strength at the home front.
“Sam Nda-Isaiah is also from a
PDP-controlled Niger State with 25 local governments. He is also
constrained from the outset due to limited number of delegates from his
state who can vote for him in sympathy.
“But Kwankwaso and Rochas Okorocha
are solid at home because they are in total charge of all statutory and
elected delegates in their states. They, therefore, reach out to other
delegates from a voting premise.”
The real contest among the aspirants is in their ability to woo delegates from all the states.
The Chairman of the National
Convention Committee (NCC), Dr. Kayode Fayemi, has, however, assured of a
credible election at the convention.
Fayemi said: “I have no doubt in my
mind. That is why we have a very huge task on our hands as the
convention committee. I am reasonably convinced that we have serious
minded aspirants. And once we do our job in terms of the process being
credible, transparent and it is seen to be transparent by all and
sundry, everybody would accept the outcome. That is our own belief.
“But we also have post-convention
conflict management mechanisms. There must be something in it for all
players. We want to win an election; the presidency of Nigeria is not
the only position. People want to serve and those contesting on our
platform are politicians of extensive credible experience. I would like
to think that is it service that is propelling them.
“Of course they want to be president
but the presidential candidature is not available due to the fact that
they did not win the primaries there are other ways they can serve and I
believe they will all want to live up to their undertaking.”
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